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PROJECT: Morbidity Forensics
DATA_SOURCE: CDC WONDER / Medicare Part D
CORRELATION: -0.147 (Prescriptions vs Deaths)
ANALYTIC_ENGINE: R-tidyverse / Quarto
FOCUS: Fentanyl-Specific Morbidity
STATUS: CRITICAL SIGNAL AUDIT COMPLETE
PROJECT: fentanyl_morbidity_project
DATA_SOURCE: CDC WONDER / Medicare Part D
TIMESTAMP SYS.STATUS: [ACTIVE]

fentanyl_morbidity_project

RESEARCH PIPELINE // CONCEPTION TO CONCLUSION
Stage 01 01
THE QUESTION
Is there a measurable relationship between medical fentanyl prescriptions and the spike in overdose deaths?
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Stage 02 02
THE DATA
Merged CDC WONDER (Mortality), CMS Medicare Part D (65+ Prescribers), and 2024 Bulk Powder Seizure Intercepts.
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Stage 03 03
THE TEST
Pearson Correlation and EDA in R/Tidyverse. Stratified analysis for seniors (65+) vs general population mortality.
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Stage 04 04
THE RESULT
Correlation ≈ -0.147. Confirmed zero or slightly negative alignment between legitimate medical channels and overdose spikes.
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Stage 05 05
THE CONCLUSION
Crisis driven by IMFs and shifting supply lines (53x increase in powder seizures) rather than prescriptions.
CDC // CMS // 2024 SEIZURE DATA
THE DATA STORY // SWIPE OR DRAG TO VIEW
01 // PERSONAL_MISSION
Two people I cared about died of fentanyl. This project is personal. The opioid crisis is a devastating reality that has touched my life directly.
Signal > Noise
02 // THE_POTENCY_LADDER
Morphine is a step. Heroin is a flight. Fentanyl is a skyscraper. Carfentanil is deep space—where survival is often impossible.
Lethal Dose ≈ 2mg
03 // THE_PRESCRIPTION_PARADOX
82% of fentanyl deaths involve illicitly manufactured fentanyl (IMFs). Analysis shows a slightly negative correlation (-0.147) between prescriptions and deaths.
Source: CDC / CMS
04 // TACTICAL_SEIZURES
2024 saw a 53x increase in bulk powder seizures over counterfeit pills. The supply line is shifting from pills to massive raw powder shipments.
27,000 lbs Seized (2024)
05 // FORENSIC_VALIDATION
Analyzing Medicare Part D data for seniors (65+) vs. CDC mortality records confirms that legitimate medical channels are not fueling the street epidemic.
Zero Correlation Found

PROJECT OVERVIEW

The Story Behind The Data

"Two people I cared about died of fentanyl within the last 12 months. This project is personal. The opioid crisis is not an abstract problem—it is a devastating reality that has touched my life..."

Since 2007 I’ve blogged, podcasted and written several books to help those suffering from addictions. It is with this background that the questions around fentanyl began to gnaw at my inner researcher.

According to the CDC, 82% of fentanyl overdose deaths in the U.S. involve Illicitly Manufactured Fentanyl (IMFs) rather than prescriptions. This study explores whether there is any measurable relationship between medical prescriptions and mortality spikes.

R / Tidyverse ggplot2 CDC WONDER CMS Medicare Quarto

SCATTER_CORRELATION // PRESCRIPTIONS VS DEATHS

Fentanyl Correlation Plot

Fentanyl Prescriptions vs. All-Age Deaths (Correlation: -0.1250)

SENIOR_ANALYSIS // 65+ DEMOGRAPHIC

Fentanyl Senior Correlation Plot

Fentanyl Prescriptions vs. Senior Deaths (65+) (Correlation: -0.1474)

METHODOLOGY

The Analytical Framework

By focusing on a simple, direct question—"Is there a relationship between medical prescriptions and overdose deaths?"—I intentionally chose clarity over technical obscurity. The analysis uses Medicare Part D data (primarily covering seniors 65+) as a baseline for legitimate medical access.

  • ► ASK: Defined the target population disparity (Seniors vs. Early Adulthood).
  • ► PREPARE: Cleaned and merged CMS Medicare Prescribers with CDC WONDER Mortality records.
  • ► PROCESS: Handled massive bulk powder seizure deltas (53x increase) in R.
  • ► ANALYZE: Reran EDA to control for the 65+ age filter.

TL;DR

Results & Findings

The EDA showed a relationship of zero or slightly negative between prescriptions and deaths nationwide. Specifically, among the Medicare-age population, there is no positive correlation between medical fentanyl prescriptions and overdose rates.

CORRELATION (Fentanyl Prescriptions vs. Senior Deaths): -0.147
INTERPRETATION: Legitimate medical channels do not align with overdose spikes.

This aligns with the conclusion that the crisis is driven by illicit supply lines, verified by the massive intercept deltas of raw bulk powder in 2024.